Uncategorized

Jumbo Package: ‘Bama Hoops predicted to take huge steps back this season, alongside most of the SEC

Admin May 6, 2025

But is perception reality? We don’t think so.

By Erik Evans Apr 30, 2025, 10:44am CDT 186 Comments / 186 New

Share this story

Share this on Facebook (opens in new window)

Share this on Twitter (opens in new window)

All sharing options

Good morning, folks. We’re now entering the dog days, so cobbling together news is a bit tougher. Today, the luck of the draw happened to land on basketball, coinciding with the closure of the portal. Alabama, like most of the SEC, is expected to take a step backwards — at least by the national beat reporters enamored by a stronger than expected showing by the Big 12 last season and the (mistaken) belief that momentum is built from one March to the next Fall.

First up, a non-sequitur, as two ‘Bama legends discuss one of the most legendary moments in Ref Ball history. Here’s Marty Lyons speaking with Roman Harper.

We started with a palate cleanser, because what comes next is the national basketball beats proclaiming (hoping?) that they don’t have to write about the SEC’s dominance again.

The data folks are not high on the Tide, for a start. Torvik has ‘Bama checking in at 37th overall, with the offense dropping off the map all the way down to 43rd.

2025-26 Projections – – Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats – T-Rank

But, I ask you, dear reader, when was the last time a Nate Oats team finished 43rd in offense?

Literally never. The worst ‘Bama finished was 33rd and 32nd, in Oats’ first two seasons, with a defense-led Herb Jones squad. The last four seasons, ‘Bama has been in the Top 15 — including the other rebuilding year of 2022 that saw the Tide exit in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

And the Tide’s defensive projection of 31 seems a bit off, given the Tide’s emphasis on beef on the interior and length on the perimeter (and, as of this writing, the addition of WAC FOTY, Keitenn Bristow).

ANALYSIS: ‘Bama snags WAC Freshman of the Year Keitenn Bristow out of Tarleton State

Alabama has fielded three genuinely bad defenses in Coach Oats’ six seasons, and they’ve all occurred in transitional seasons following a roster rebuild (the 2020 Year Zero; 2022 following Herb’s departure; 2024 after losing everyone). The other three seasons, ‘Bama either had good defenses with discernible weaknesses (2024-2025), or outright elite units. This year there’s a lot more continuity than in those other two bad seasons, and the Tide didn’t lose most of its coaching staff either.

The mathy folks aren’t the only ones who see a step back either. Preseason and post-Portal projections from ESPN and CBS have Alabama in the good-not-elite tier of the high-teens to low-20s.

UA is not alone in that camp either, though; ‘Bama finds itself in the same scrum with Tennessee, Auburn, OU, Texas, and even National Champ Florida. The only SEC teams the beats are bullish on? Kentucky and Arkansas…and for the life of me, I don’t see much of a difference in the complete overhaul that every one of these teams faces. Potential and splash factor, while relying on prior performances and seamless integration, doesn’t seem to be the best way to ascertain rankings.

So, what is? Well, let’s start with the schedules — and those aren’t finalized yet. As we saw last year, what Birmingham does to you is often far more dispositive than raw talent alone.

Will the SEC take a step back? Likely. Last year was a generational showing. But it won’t be this stark — this league isn’t composed of mid-tier seeds with only one or two outside shots at a Final Four bid. And, if that’s the emerging narrative, then this is a perfect time to catch teams napping as the SEC pushes back on the metastasizing story of “good, not great.” You don’t go 31-4 against the ACC, field almost a third of all the at-large bids, and make up half of the Elite 8 by accident.

Time to let the rat poison work in ‘Bama’s favor.

Ranking the top 25 men’s basketball teams after the transfer portal close

Men’s Bracketology: Debut predictions for the 2025-26 season

College basketball rankings: Transfer class fuels St. John’s rise to No. 2 as UNC falls from Top 25 And 1 – CBSSports.com

Aye Ell takes a stab at a projected defensive depth chart:

Defensive line

Starters: LT Overton (bandit), James Smith, Tim Keenan III

Reserves: Edric Hill, Jeremiah Beaman, Kelby Collins, Jordan Renaud, Keon Keeley, Fatutoa Henry, Isaia Faga, Steve Bolo Mboumoua, London Simmons

Analysis: Expect plenty of rotation at this spot. Collins is listed as a linebacker, but he’s a moveable piece in the defense depending on how Wommack wants to use him. While Overton, Smith and Keenan figure to start, expect to see plenty of Hill and Beaman as well as Renaud and Keeley mixed into the defense.

Projecting Alabama depth chart 2025 for the defense after transfer portal closed

And ESPN even got in on the act, tossing some darts into a dark future as to who will replace first round selections this season:

12. G Tyler Booker, Dallas Cowboys

Replacement: Kam Dewberry, Alabama Crimson Tide

No member of the Alabama offensive line took more snaps (741) last fall than Booker, who started 27 games over the past two seasons. Upon his departure, the Crimson Tide hosted a tight position battle this spring between redshirt senior Geno VanDeMark and Texas A&M transfer Dewberry. Considering that VanDeMark missed the end of spring camp with an injury, the edge going into the summer belongs to Dewberry, the 6-foot-4, 345-pound lineman who made five starts in 32 career games with the Aggies. However, Alabama’s thin guard depth likely means both Dewberry and VanDeMark will be critical to a successful fall in Tuscaloosa. — Lederman

This is an interesting one to me. I suspect Geno has the inside track here, despite Dewberry’s raw talent advantage. A second year in the system matters a bunch, and VanDerMark was running ahead of Dewberry most of Spring, injury aside.

More here:

Replacing the first round of the NFL draft: Who’s up next in college football?

Having seen three notoriously awful federal judges absolutely distort the purpose of antitrust law for half a decade, and open up this Pandora’s box of chicanery, it seems as though some of their robed brethren are finally pushing back on ridiculous claims of eligibility for life.

First up, we now decisively have our first ruling that the four-year statute of limitations is in fact a hard cap — previously, it had been hinted at by trial lawyers that each new season brought with it a renewal of the SOL and itself represented an ongoing injury.

Judge tosses former basketball players’ NIL suit

“The NCAA’s use today of a NIL acquired decades ago as the fruit of an antitrust violation does not constitute a new overt act restarting the limitations clock,” Engelmayer wrote in the 34-page decision. “Instead, as the NCAA argues, the contemporary use of a NIL reflects performance of an aged agreement: a contract between the student-athlete and the NCAA under which it acquired footage and images of the plaintiff.”

Engelmayer also noted that the plaintiffs were part of the class in O’Bannon v. NCAA, the 2015 case that helped to usher in the age of NIL payments so the lawsuit was not demonstrably different from other settled cases involving the athletes.

This is the least-discussed case of exceptional importance that no one is talking about. If it stands, then all of these has-beens and stale claims go by the wayside, and a little bit of normalcy can finally be reestablished.

And, in another case of equal importance, a federal judge denied injunctive relief to players seeking to upend the NCAA’s four-in-five eligibility rule, having argued that they should be entitled to five years of Uncle Sugar, no matter how many seasons they had played or how long they had been in “college” (and face it, these guys aren’t seekijng degrees).

Judge Matthew Houston said the evidence was “not sufficient” while ruling from the bench following a three-hour hearing in North Carolina Business Court. That came in response to similar lawsuits filed by former Duke football players Ryan Smith and Tre’Shon Devones, as well as another from former Duke player Cam Bergeron and ex-North Carolina player J.J. Jones. The hearing involved all four players.

Their complaints sought to prevent the NCAA from following its longstanding policy of having athletes complete four years of eligibility within a five-year window.

Smith and Devones had competed in five seasons, while Bergeron and Jones participated in four seasons across a four-year period.

* * *

In court, their attorneys challenged the NCAA’s five-year eligibility window. Because athletes didn’t use a season of eligibility during the 2020-21 school year and the possibility that the NCAA adjusts its eligibility rules allowing for five years of competition, the lawyers said that Bergeron and Jones were in a disadvantaged group.

The players’ attorneys stressed the importance of urgency in a ruling because the NFL draft will be held later this week. Undrafted players are likely to agree to pro contracts by the end of the weekend, and that would effectively make them ineligible to play again collegiately.

It’s not a straight up win, as the matter would still need to be litigated, but being denied the injunction all-but trashes their case, since TROs are issued upon not just suggested harm but likelihood of success on the merits.

So, hold this L, MFer.

Judge rules against 4 players suing for eligibility

I’m sure this will go smoothly, with little-to-no blowback, strife, or controversy:

President Donald Trump announced last week that he would be giving a commencement address to the university’s graduating class of 2025.

On Tuesday, the school announced that Trump will be joined by former Crimson Tide football coach Nick Saban.

“The ceremony will celebrate the UA class of 2025 and feature an address from President Donald J. Trump along with comments from UA President Stuart R. Bell and Nick Saban, former coach of the Crimson Tide football team,” the university said in a press release.