Way-too-early 2026 NFL Draft odds: Arch Manning or the field for No. 1 overall?
The 2025 NFL Draft is over with, and that means it’s time for Mel Kiper Jr. to start researching which future Day 3 pick he’ll stake his entire career on for next year.
We’re assuming Kiper returns as one of the lead analysts for ESPN’s draft coverage in 2026, which maybe isn’t a fair assumption. Kiper spent the entire weekend droning on about former Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, comparing his fall from a speculative first-round pick into the fifth round to guys like Dan Marino and Tom Brady, and a great number of people were put off by the whole ordeal.
Throughout ESPN’s draft coverage, a graphic was regularly displayed showing other former quarterbacks who were high on Kiper’s pre-draft big board but eventually much lower on actual NFL scouting department big boards. While Kiper rattled off some of the most famous names to ever play the position, viewers saw names like Chad Pennington, Brady Quinn, and Jimmy Clausen — players Kiper stumped for who went lower than he expected and went on to have unremarkable professional careers.
Maybe Sanders outperforms his draft selection. The Cleveland Browns, who took him 2 rounds after taking a different quarterback, claim to believe he will. Or maybe the rest of the NFL is right, and Sanders’ collection of good-not-great traits makes for an unremarkable career.
The point here is not that Sanders should or should not have been a Day 1 (or even Day 2) selection. Kiper spent a year prepping for the draft and completely missed on Sanders.
But here’s the thing: so did so many other people. Sanders was either the outright favorite to go No. 1 or the co-favorite when the markets opened last April. At DraftKings, he was +300 to be the No. 1 pick. Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers were +500. Cam Ward, who actually did go No. 1 overall, was +1700 when sportsbooks released their opening odds.
For long stretches of the 2024 season, Sanders was talked about as a first-round pick. Up until the pre-draft process began and Sanders reportedly put teams off during interviews, he was viewed as a first-round pick.
Keep all that in mind when it comes to the 2026 NFL Draft betting market, because the presumptive favorite to go No. 1 overall has made 2 career starts.
It’s Arch Manning, the likely starting quarterback for the Texas Longhorns in 2025. At DraftKings, Manning is +200 to be the first player off the board next season.
Beyond Manning, quarterbacks make up the 4 most likely players to be picked No. 1. DraftKings has Penn State’s Drew Allar priced at +225, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier priced at +450, and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik priced at +1800.
Overall, 8 of the top 11 players on the board are quarterbacks. The rest include South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (+3000), Miami’s Carson Beck (+3000), USC’s Jayden Maiava (+3500), and Oregon’s Dante Moore (+3500).
With Ward’s selection by the Tennessee Titans, a quarterback has now been the No. 1 overall pick in 3 consecutive draft cycles and in 9 of the last 12 years. Since the turn of the century, 19 of the 26 players who have gone first overall played the quarterback position.
So, for bettors who want to lay down a wager on the opening odds for next year’s top pick, do you back a quarterback? And, if so, is Manning the player to get behind?
